Primary finding
First-ever-run backfill writes announced_at=today, so a fork that activates on day-2 will never alert
- skills/fork-first-run-alert/SKILL.md:264-268
- skills/fork-first-run-alert/SKILL.md:138-142
The backfill rule says 'populate seen for every current ACTIVE/POWER fork'. That's correct for suppression on day one. However, the spec elsewhere says the seen-list is keyed by `full_name` and the only way to re-alert is manual reset. Combined with the constraint 'A fork that goes ACTIVE → STALE → ACTIVE again does NOT re-fire', this means: every fork that was already ACTIVE on the first day this skill ran is *permanently* suppressed, even if its very first workflow run actually happened weeks later. That's intentional for already-active forks, but the doc frames this only as 'no per-fork alerts emitted' on day one — it doesn't acknowledge that the entire pre-existing fleet is silently lost forever, including the very signal this skill exists to catch when fork-cohort hasn't run yet. Operators reading the doc may be surprised.
Recommendation
Either emit a one-line summary notification on first-ever-run listing the backfilled fleet (named alert by batch), or document the trade-off explicitly in the 'Why this exists' section so operators understand day-one silence is intentional.